DFNS THOUGHTS

DFNS has a little bit of action today.

It hit a low of .55 today and has been in the .55-.56 range. Sometimes the ask bumps up to .58.

I bought 2,000 shares yesterday at .56 for my IRA and last week bought 1000 at .58 for my IRA.

Not much has changed from my post a few weeks ago.

I feel the company needs to come out with some positive news prior to their Q3 to get the thing moving. If no announcment comes I feel that a disappointment could be in store for Q3 #'s and could send the stock to the .40's.

If we do get an announcement I think we could be in the .60's prior to Q3 and move up nicely from there should we get a positive Q3 announcement.

The company should do $17-18 million in revenue for the year. It has roughly 29 million shares outstanding. So a .60 stock price would put the Price to sales at roughly 1. It has a book around .20 so Price to book is around 3. They have earned .035 roughly for the year so far I would think they could do .07-.08 for the year depending on how Q3 is. At .07 EPS for the year a .60 stock price would be 8.5x P/E. Growing at the rate that DFNS is growing at least this year I would think a 12x PE would be reasonable for them. Which would mean roughly .84 share price. I think if they could earn close to .10 EPS for next year and get a 12x PE you are talking over $1.20 share price. Which if they get the orders wouldn't take too much.

The question though is can they keep expenses under control? If they have a breakeven or losing quarter for Q3 this stock will probably go down to the low .40's if not lower. It has been a stalled stock as of late and a lot of people are feeling antsy so that is why we have drifted down as we have.

I still have a lot of faith in DFNS. I think their investor relations is lacking for sure and should offer more support that way. But that is one of the drawbacks as well when the CEO owns the majority of the shares.

This month will determine whether we see low .40's or mid .70's+.

Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

TATTF over $16 and next Pick update

It looks like I may have gotten out of TATTF at the low.

Its above $16 again this morning. Congrats if you stayed in the stock. Congrats even if you exited early. Its a nice profit either way. Nothing wrong with taking profits.

More than likely I won't have a new pick for sure this week. (Unless something just tanks and is too good of deal to pass up.)

I would probably not expect anything next week either.

May not see anything until November I have to setup a membership website etc which takes time.

Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycantews.net

Out of TATTF and the next pick is when?

I am out of TATTF with a 10% profit as I said yesterday. Too bad I missed the dividend but oh well I will take the profit.

Don't expect a new stock choice anytime soon. It takes a little time to do the research and I don't foresee me having that time anytime over the next week. I will also be making the site into a membership site for members only and I will let you know the details on that in the future.

NOEC earned 15% in less then a week
TATTF earned 10% in just over 2 weeks.

The goal of the project is to earn 10-30% per stock over the course of 60 days. So far we are hitting those targets with a LOT OF TIME TO SPARE.

For those of you who just can't wait for the next monthly stock pick you may want to consider DFNS.

It is the stock I own for the stockdoubling project. You can read my recent thoughts on DFNS here http://stockdoubling.blogspot.com/2007/10/stock-market.html

It was bid/ask of .54-.57 yesterday. I think if it came down even a little more it would be a good deal. But even at .57 isn't a bad place to get your feet wet. I would probably look for 15% risk and 15% profit. Which is about .09 either way.

But what I would be looking for is news from the company. I think its extremely important for this stock to come out with some new sales orders prior to their Nov 14-15th Q3 earnings release. I would expect their earnings and revenue to be decent though not as good as Q2. The key will be earnings if they can keep their expenses down.

But I would really want to see an announcement sometime before the Q3 to feel more confidence in a nice run. I think if it did get an announcement it could run to over .60+ again just based on that.

I wouldn't consider that an official Monthly StockDoubling Pick but for those of you who can't wait for the next one you may want to consider looking into DFNS.

Feel free to donate a portion of your winnings on TATTF to the stockdoubling project. Just click the donate button or send it via paypal to alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

TATTF 10% PROFIT

I got stopped out of TATTF at $14.84.

A gain of $1.37 per share or just over 10% in a little over 2 weeks.

The market as a whole really came down the last couple of hours.

It is still a nice gain and I will take it. If it comes down to the $13's again I will consider another buy.

I have NO stock for the stockdoubling MONTHLY project at this time.

The only stock I own at this time is DFNS for the stockdoubling project and some for my IRA.

Thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

TATTF thoughts

Had I sold at $16 today (WHICH I DID NOT) on TATTF that would have been roughly a 18% return on the stock in just over 2 weeks. Though it was quite tempting I am going to hold off.

TATTF is awarding a dividend on Nov 5th for those shareholders on record as of Oct 16th. It would be .40 which is roughly 3% of my purchase price. So I am hoping to hold out for that.

I have my stop in at $14.85 which is roughly a 10% profit from my purchase price. So if I did get stopped out PRIOR to the dividend record date I would have 10% profit. If I got stopped out after that date I would have 13% profit.

I still think it can run up some more and may yet we will have to see what happens. But at this point I think we are sitting on some nice profits.

I agree with the slogan of let your profits run but I also agree if the stock shoots up too quickly to take some profits. Bulls can make money, Bears can make money but Pigs get slaughtered.

My goal is 10-30% per pick and a stock can take 60 days to get there. So far we have done it A LOT faster then that. So if you are happy with the 15% profits+ in TATTF its a good place to exit. I am going to see what happens and try and squeeze a little more out. Either way I think I am pretty safe for a profit at this point.

Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Out of CAGC

I just sold my CAGC shares at $5.20.

Bought at $2.40 on August 17th.

That is a 116% profit in less then 2 months. I will take that. If it continues to run GREAT. But I am fine with that kind of return.

TATTF having a nice day so far as well.

Right now I only own 2 stocks

DFNS for the stockdoubling project. (And some shares in my IRA)

And

TATTF for the monthly stockdoubling project.

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

TATTF close above $15!!!

TATTF had a nice day yesterday while I was gone. Maybe I should leave more often.
Well we got the close above $15 that I was looking for.

I am going to move my stop to the $14.85 area. That would lock in about 10% profits if it came that low. I would probably exit in the $17 area should we get that high in the next couple days.

Exiting now based on a $13.47 entry would mean a 16% profit in 2 weeks. Not a bad return at all.

We will see how things go for today.

FYI if you missed CAGC that took off yesterday too. I am in from $2.40 less then 2 months ago. It almost hit $5 yesterday.

I will keep you posted have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Decent Day for TATTF

A decent day today for TATTF.

It got above $15 but didn't stay up there very long at all. I was surprised it went thru $15 so quickly without a lot of volume.

Didn't get a close above $15 which is what I wanted to see.

I have my stop in at $13.97 so unless their is a gap down for some reason that is my worst case. Which is still a decent profit. Getting out at the close based on a $13.47 entry would have meant roughly a 9-10% gain in less than 2 weeks.

I am still in the trade though personally I may regret it if it does punch thru the $15 level I would think it would need to do it on Tuesday or Wednesday.

I am NOT going to be around on Tuesday I am going to the Republican debate and will be traveling there etc.. (Go Mike Huckabee go) Anyway you can watch it on CNBC at 4pm Eastern it should be interesting maybe you will see me on TV. (I will be sitting with my 14 year old nephew, I tutor him in Government and US history.)

I will be around for a few minutes just after the bell in the morning but after that I will be out. I have my stop in so if things go bad I should be ok.

Have a great evening and Tuesday if I don't speak with you then.

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Just crossed over $15!!!

Just passed $15 hopefully we can get a close above it with some strength in volume that would be great.

I have put in a $13.97 stop on this trade. That is $1.27 from today's highs or 8% drop. If I did get stopped out at that price I would have a .50 profit or roughly a 4% profit.

The stock was up 15% from the $13.47 purchase to $15.24 is 15%+. So not a bad return if you exited at those prices for less then 2 weeks.

Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

TATTF 6 month daily chart

CLICK ON THE CHART TO MAKE IT BIGGER.

The $15 level is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. If it can close above $15 I think we are smooth sailing.

Their is some weak support around $13.40 as well. If that were to break OUCH!!

Actually I think if it goes below $14 before closing above $15 it will test the $13.40 level. For those that are in below that level I personally would have a breakeven stop in.
Those that want to take profits I would watch the $14 level with caution. If it closes below that and you want profits that is a good place to take them.

I personally am going to keep an eye on TATTF. If I see a close below $14 I will probably pull the trigger and get out. If I had a little better price say $13.20 or so I would be willing to ride it out a little more.

I NEVER MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS.

Have a good trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

PS thank you for taking part in the poll. We will have more of those from time to time.

TATTF and other news

Please take a minute to take the poll which is located at the right of this blog.

As of this writing LIMC is over $15 per share.
At 8 million shares TATTF owns $120 million worth of LIMC shares!!

Take that $120 million divided by 6.6 million TATTF shares its worth $18 per share!
That doesn't include the $20-$40 million TATTF business.

We are undervalued we will just see if TATTF can get thru that $15 level. I don't know if LIMC will stay this high it seems to be getting a bit ahead of itself which if it comes back down TATTF may follow suit.

Again the $15 level will be key if it closes above that I think we get run to the $17-19 levels.

Right now TATTF is at roughly 8%+ where I purchased it last week wednesday so that isn't a bad return for a little over a week.
I am going to hold the stock but I will probably watch it closely. If it can't close above $15 and falls back below $14 over the next week I will consider getting out with a small profit etc..

Again if you don't want to give the $$$ back these levels are good exits or even for 1/2 a person shares and ride the rest. If we get above $15 I think its clear sailing.

I wouldn't probably risk back down to $11+ on this stock anymore though. So worst case would be getting out at breakeven. (Assuming of course they don't come out with horrible news and it sends the stock down numerous dollars prior to an open etc.. which I don't expect to happen.)

I NEVER MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS.

have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

TATTF ON THE MOVE

LIMC came out with news on a new contract with the US Gov't. Sending its stock higher.

Which in turn is sending TATTF higher as well.

It is kind of silly to own LIMC when TATTF is trading at a discount to it.

If TATTF does in fact own 8 million shares of LIMC. For every $1 LIMC goes up that is $8 million in should be market cap for TATTF.

TATTF only has about 6.6 million shares. So really for every $1 LIMC goes up TATTF should go up $1.21.

We will see if this can push TATTF thru the $15 area tomorrow that would be GREAT!

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Blast from the past

Blast from the past stocks rolled today.

HIHO was our 3rd pick for the stock doubling project. That has moved from the low $4's a few weeks ago and hit almost $7 today. WOW!!

NOEC hit $8.81 today for a high. We bought it back less then a month ago at $3.89!! What a run.

We try and find stocks with value.

Ever looked at TBSI. It was one of our "other stocks" back in May 2006. Just 17 months ago it was around $5. Now it has high as $47!!!

Find the quality stocks that have good potential and they can RUN!!

TATTF has backed off a bit the last 2 days after closing above $14 on Monday. (glad I got out of the 50 IRA shares at $14.01.)
It has come down to almost the area where I first bought it. I still feel the same though that those $14-15 levels are key. If we can build up some buyers at these current levels and push it past those levels we should be looking good.

Unless I am missing something based on the company releases etc.. I don't see a ton of downside to the stock especially with the value of LIMC at this point. Now if LIMC tanked we could be in some trouble.
But it is approaching $14 which would mean TATTF interest would be well over $110 million just for their portion of the stock.

We will see how things play out I think we will see some movement from TATTF one way or the other over the next week or two.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
Alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Sold my IRA TATTF just before bell last night

The 50 shares I bought for my IRA at $13.28 I sold yesterday just before the bell at $14.01. So a .73 profit on a $13.28 purchase or a bit over 5% return in less then a week.

The reason I did that was a couple of reasons.

1. I felt $14 was a VERY important level for the stock to close above. If it didn't I felt tomorrow (which is today) could be an ugly day.

2. The issues I talked about yesterday where my #'s were off. TATTF is still undervalued but not as much as I posted back on Friday.

I still hold my original position from $13.47 of 50 shares and will continue to hold that until further notice.

I think the stock could move nicely today after the $14+ close. I still think their is some good resistance in the $14.50-$15 levels. We will see how stock moves this week as it approaches those levels.

Have a good trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

TATTF MOVING UP!

Happy Monday Morning,

TATTF has moved up nicely from the $12.90 close one day last week.
Hitting a high of $13.86 so far today.

I think if we can get some good volume today it could punch thru the $14 range. This is key area though we will see if the buying comes in. I see decent resistance not to much higher so we will see if it can move up.

If you HATE losing money this may be a good place to take profits. (Only 2-3% but its still PROFIT.)

Others may want to consider breakeven stops.

I think if it punches thru the $14-15 level on a close it will go for $18-20 range. But it could still fall back.

Doing more research the stats I gave last week were OFF.

They aren't a $100 million revenue company without LIMC from what I understand they would be more like $20-$35 million revenue.

But even with 8 million shares x $11 for LIMC that is $88 million add that to say $22 million in revenue on their own and the marketcap should at least be $110 million on TATTF.

With 6.6 million shares for TATTF a $110 million marketcap is still a $16+ stock. And that is at a pretty big discount. (LIMC shares are over $13!)

Anyway you slice it is still a good value I think. I am holding until further notice.

Have a good trading day,

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net